EUR/USD: FOMC - 7月31日に何か驚きがあるか？
このレビューは少し変わった方法で始まります。初めからではなく、先週の終わりからです。7月18日の夜と7月19日の朝、システム管理者とユーザーは、サーバーとWindowsオペレーティングシステムを搭載したPCの不具合に直面しました。これらのシステムは「ブルースクリーンオブデス」（BSOD）を表示し始め、無限のリセットループに入りました。このグローバルなMicrosoftのエラーは、アメリカ、イギリス、スペイン、ドイツ、トルコ、オーストラリアを含む多くの国に影響を与えました。中国でも多くのユーザーが「ブルースクリーンオブデス」に直面しました。緊急サービス、病院、警察、空港、鉄道、放送局、インターネットプロバイダー、電気通信会社、その他の組織、銀行や取引所などの重要なコンピュータシステムが停止したり、誤作動を起こしたりしました。その結果、当時の金融市場の状況はほぼ不可抗力状態に陥りました。
Since ancient times, gold has remained a crucial element of global economies. Its unique properties have made it not only valuable as jewellery but also a reliable means of preserving wealth. Today, this metal constitutes a significant part of both investor portfolios and central bank reserves. This review analyses the dynamics and reasons for changes in the price of gold and presents forecasts from leading banks and experts regarding the XAU/USD pair in the medium- and long-term perspectives.
EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad
On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe not faring as poorly.
EUR/USD: Inflation in the US – Everything is Going According to Plan
Last week, specifically on Thursday, 27 June, the dollar received support from positive macroeconomic data from the US. The Department of Commerce reported that according to the final estimate, the US GDP grew by 1.4% in Q1, against the forecast of 1.3%. (According to the current Fed forecast, the country's real GDP will expand by 2.1% in 2024). Labour market statistics were also optimistic – the number of initial jobless claims in the US amounted to 233K, lower than both the forecast of 236K and the previous figure of 239K. Durable goods orders did not disappoint either, rising by 0.1% in May against the forecast of a decline of -0.1%. Against this backdrop, the DXY dollar index rose to 106.10, approaching April highs, and EUR/USD dropped to 1.0685.
EUR/USD: Eurozone - Rising Inflation, Falling Economy
As revised Eurostat data published on Monday, June 17, showed, inflation (CPI) in the 20 Eurozone countries accelerated to 2.6% (y/y) in May, compared to 2.4% in April when it was at its lowest since November 2023. The consumer price index in the services sector increased annually from 3.7% to 4.1%. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy (CPI Core), accelerated to 2.9% in May, compared to 2.7% in April - the lowest since February 2022.
EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed
As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual terms decreased to 3.3% compared to the expected 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the indicator dropped from 0.3% to 0% against the forecast of 0.1%. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which does not take into account food and energy prices, was 0.2% (m/m) compared to April, which was below the forecast of 0.3%. Annually, this index grew by 3.4%, showing the slowest growth rate in the last three years (previous value 3.6%, forecast 3.5%).
EUR/USD: Who Controls the Financial Market
It is clear that interest rates rule the markets, not only in terms of actual changes but also regarding expectations about the timing and magnitude of future changes. From spring 2022 to mid-2023, the focus was on raising rates; now, the expectation has shifted towards their reduction. Traders are still uncertain about the Federal Reserve's decisions and timing, leading them to scrutinize macroeconomic statistics primarily for their impact on the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the regulator.
EUR/USD: Awaiting a Turbulent Week
Recall that Monday, 27 May was a holiday in the US. However, on Tuesday, dollar bulls took control, and the DXY Index started to rise, bolstered by a significant increase in the US Consumer Confidence Index (from 97.5 to 102.0 against a forecast of 96.0). Consequently, EUR/USD moved southward.
EUR/USD: The Battle of Europe and US PMIs
Overall, the past week favoured the dollar, but the advantage over the European currency was minimal. If you look at where the EUR/USD pair was on 15 May, it returned to this zone on 24 May, regaining the losses of recent days. Recall that the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on 15 May showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m), against a forecast of 0.4%. On an annual basis, inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales volume demonstrated an even more significant decline, from 0.6% to 0.0% month-on-month (forecast 0.4%). These data indicated that inflation in the country, though resistant in certain areas, is still on the decline. At that moment, there were renewed discussions in the market about a possible rate cut by the Fed as early as this autumn. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) went down, and EUR/USD went up. Stock indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs.
EUR/USD: Weak Inflation = Weak USD
The American currency suffered two significant blows last week. Although these were not knockdowns, let alone knockouts, these minor shocks pushed the DXY Dollar Index down from 105.26 to 104.20 points, and EUR/USD up from 1.0766 to 1.0895.
EUR/USD: Medium-Term Outlook Favours the Dollar
Throughout the past week, EUR/USD exhibited mixed dynamics, primarily driven by expectations concerning potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Statements by officials from both central banks, as well as economic macro-statistics, either heightened or lowered these expectations.
EUR/USD: What's Wrong with the US Soft Landing?
The headline of our last review stated that inflation remains stubborn, and the US GDP is slowing. Newly arrived data have only confirmed these assertions. A crucial inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) – increased from 2.5% to 2.7% in March. The ISM Manufacturing Sector PMI surpassed the critical level of 50.0 points, dropping from 50.3 to 49.2 points. It is important to remember that the 50.0 threshold separates economic growth from contraction. In such circumstances, neither raising nor lowering the interest rate is advisable, which is exactly what the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve decided. At its meeting on Wednesday, 01 May, the committee members unanimously left the rate unchanged at 5.50%, marking the highest rate in 23 years and unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting.
EUR/USD: Inflation Persists, US GDP Growth Slows
The US economy remains the most powerful on the planet. Moreover, its share of global GDP has reached a nearly two-decade high of 26.3%. According to the IMF, from 2018, the European Union's share decreased by 1.4%, Japan's by 2.1%, while the United States increased by 2.3%. China's GDP is 64% of the American figure, down from 67% five years ago. As a result, the dollar remains the undisputed leader among G10 currencies, with no contenders for its throne in the foreseeable future. The strength of the national economy, coupled with a robust labour market, allows the Federal Reserve to focus on combating inflation, aiming to reduce it to the target 2.0%. According to Jerome Powell, head of the US Central Bank, easing monetary policy under current conditions would have far more negative consequences for the economy than maintaining it tight over a long period. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a dollar interest rate cut at the Fed's June meeting, according to the FedWatch Tool, fell to 15%. Market participants believe that, at best, a decision to change the current policy may be taken in September. Some economists, including analysts from Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale, even suggest that the Fed may delay the first rate cut until early 2025. Such forecasts led to the US currency rising to five-month highs in mid-April against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, with USD/JPY once again reaching a 34-year price record and the DXY index climbing to 106.42.
EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally
Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690. Market participants were recuperating from the rally of the preceding days, with dollar bulls counting profits and bears licking their wounds. The American currency reached five-month highs against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, while USD/JPY once again set a 34-year price record, and the DXY index climbed to 106.42.
EUR/USD: The Dollar Soars
Last week saw two significant events: the first shocked market participants, while the second passed without surprises. Let's examine the details in order.
EUR/USD: The Dollar Weakness Puzzle
What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let's delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity in the US industrial sector from the ISM for March showed the economy is on the rise: PMI increased from 47.8 to 50.3 points, crossing the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. This marked the end of a downward trend lasting over 15 months. With this sector accounting for over 10% of the US GDP, the PMI growth is a vital indicator of an economy that easily withstands high interest rates. Thus, logically, this data benefited the dollar, pushing the pair to 1.0730 - its lowest since 15 February. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East also supported the strengthening of the American currency as a safe haven.
EUR/USD: スイスによるドル高
先週の重要なイベントは、明らかに米国連邦準備制度のFOMC（連邦公開市場委員会）でした。予想どおり、米国の中央銀行は満場一致で23年ぶりの高水準である5.50%の政策金利を5回連続で据え置くことにしました。予想どおりの金利だったため、市場関係者の関心はFRB議長の発言に集まりました。一番の注目されたのが、年内に合計75ベーシスポイント（bps）になる3段階の借入コストの引き下げを検討することについてジェローム・パウエル議長が触れたことでした。長期金利見通しは2.50％から2.60％に引き上げられました。
EUR/USD: 下がらない手強いインフレ
先週の市場関係者の注目は米国のインフレ統計でした。FOMC (連邦公開市場委員会) の会合は3月20に(水)に予定されており、疑いの余地なくここでの数字が同委員会の金利決定に影響します。連邦準備制度理事会のジェローム・パウエル議長は、先日、利下げをするには着実にインフレが低下しているさらなる証拠が必要だと述べていました。しかし、今のところ、このような証拠はありません。 3月12日(火)のデータでは、物価の下落どころか上昇が示されました。
EUR/USD: ドルにとっては悪かった一週間
先週のメインは、3月7日(木)の欧州中央銀行 (ECB)の理事会でした。予想どおり、欧州中央銀行は現行の金融政策を続行、金利は4.50%の据え置きです。この決定により、望ましい範囲にインフレ率をもっていくという決意が再確認されました。ECB の一貫したインフレ率目標は2.0% であり、現在のインフレ率は2.6%です。
EUR/USD:弱い強気筋 vs.弱い弱気筋
先週の EUR/USD は狭い取引幅でした。ユーロに有利なニュースが1.0865のレジスタンスに押し上げる一方で、ドルの好材料が 1.0800のサポートレベルまで戻しました。しかし、強気筋も弱気筋もこれらのラインを突破するまでには及びませんでした。
EUR/USD: ドルに対するECBの絶妙な言い回し
2月13日に発表された米国の消費者物価指数（CPI）は予想を超えました。生産者物価指数（PPI）も国内産業のインフレ率の上昇を示しました。しかし、これにもかかわらず、ドルにさらなる支持はありませんでした。ドル指数（DXY）が2月14日から下落に転じる一方で、EUR/USD は徐々に上昇しました。
EUR/USD: データが不ぞろいの一週間
先週に発表されたマクロ経済統計のデータは米国とユーロ圏ともバラツキがありました。その結果、EUR/USD は、1.0700 のサポートも1.0800のレジスタンスも突破することなく、狭い横ばいが続きました。
EUR/USD: ドルは下落したものの反発が期待される
先週は重要なマクロ経済データが乏しく、市場関係者は新たな材料を模索して米国労働市場の状況やFRB高官の発言を分析しました。
EUR/USD: ドル高予測強まる
一月の一連の指標、GDP、雇用、小売りが米国経済の力強さを浮き彫りにしました。景気後退の兆しは薄れ、高い金利が経済パフォーマンスに大きな支障を与えないことが明らかとなりました。市場関係者は、こうした明るい経済指標を背景に、1月31日（水）の米連邦準備制度の連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）を控えていました。
EUR/USD: 米国経済のサプライズ
先週の大きなイベントが1月25日(木)に二つありました。この日、欧州中央銀行 (ECB)の会合と米国の2023年第4四半期のGDP速報値が発表されました。
EUR/USD: ドル高背景理由
先週のマクロ経済統計に関しては、特に乏しかったため、市場関係者のセンチメントはダボス会議（WEF）での発言に大きく左右されました。この会議は、毎年スイスのスキーリゾートで開催され、120ヵ国以上の世界のエリートの代表が集まります。太陽の光を浴びてキラキラと輝く透き通った雪の中、世界の権力者たちは経済問題や国際政治について討議します。今年で、このフォーラムは54回目となり、1月15日‐19日に開催されました。
EUR/USD: 市場は連邦準備制度理事会の利下げ予想
2023年の最後の週にEUR/USD のグローバルな予想をお伝えしました。今回は、長期的な予想ではなく、NordFX分析グループが10年以上続けている通常の週間予想になります。
統計によると、USD/JPY (米ドル/日本円) は、FX市場の人気取引通貨ペアのトップ3に入ります。これは、スプレッドが狭く、取引状況がよいことから流動性が高くなるためです。つまり、トレーダーは、低コストでポジションを建てることや解消ができます。また、このペアのボラティリティは非常に大きいので、特に、短期や中期での取引で素晴らしい利益のチャンスがあります。
ほんの数年前は、暗号資産の崩壊がいつなのかが最大の関心事でした。時が経つにつれ、ビットコインはトレーダーや投資家の気持ちやポートフォリオに徐々に浸透していきました。デジタルゴールドは現物の金などの投資資産と競合する手ごわい相手として浮上してきました。
当社では、例年、年の瀬に世界的な大手金融機関による為替予想を公表しています。これを数年続けていることで、来年の見通しだけでなく、専門家の過去の予想を振り返り、正確性を評価することができます。
